M&A Outlook 2026: The Dutch Perspective

The global M&A landscape is increasingly K-shaped: rather than a uniform recovery, we see divergence, with tech-driven megadeals booming, while mid-market and traditional sectors follow a flatter trajectory. In 2025, 111 megadeals (transactions exceeding $5 billion) were announced, a 76% increase year-on-year. 

The Netherlands finds itself on the lower arm of this curve. With few homegrown tech giants, Dutch dealmaking is rooted in the mid-market and more traditional industries. Dutch deal volume declined 11% in 2025 – returning to pre-COVID levels – while the global market edged up 1%. Yet this headline masks a more telling signal: when the effect of megadeals is stripped out, Dutch deal value grew in line with the global trend. While overall deal volume has declined, the average deal size has increased, driven by larger transactions.     

Van Daal explains: “Growth in the global M&A market is mainly in the US. We in the Netherlands have very few large tech players, and therefore see relatively lower growth in M&A and on the public markets.”  

Yet this isn’t a tale of stagnation. Dutch CEOs are more optimistic about acquisitions than their global peers. According to the PwC's 29th CEO Survey, Dutch executives are more likely to pursue a deal in the next 12 months than their international counterparts. This signal is rooted in the Netherlands’ open economy, cross-border investment culture, and a healthy private equity market with ample dry powder. 

AI: Short-Term Headwind, Medium-Term Tailwind

Artificial intelligence is reshaping capital allocation. In the short term, the scale of AI investment (technology infrastructure, data centres, talent) competes directly with M&A budgets. Some companies are choosing to build rather than buy. 

“Decisions on capital allocation are sometimes favouring organic growth over inorganic growth, due to the scale of investment required for AI and technology,” Van Daal observes. “However, if companies fall behind competitors, they should turn to inorganic growth to catch up.”  

This means the medium-term picture flips the script. As AI matures and transforms business models at scale, companies that underinvested will turn to M&A to catch up. 

This turning point will unlock a new wave of strategic dealmaking, with acquisitions aimed at speed, collaboration and business model reinvention. 

For dealmakers, the greatest pitfall is failing to assess the impact of AI on a target’s business model. This is no longer a “nice-to-have”; it belongs at the top of every due diligence agenda. 

Van Daal is unequivocal: “When you’re talking about due diligence, AI diligence should be number one. The question every investment committee should ask is: Will this business model still exist in two, four or six years?”  

The challenge is real: the impact of AI is certain; only its precise form remains unclear. Companies that ignore this question risk acquiring assets whose value will erode rapidly. 

“The biggest risk is ignoring AI because its direction is uncertain. What is certain is that AI will have an impact,” Van Daal warns. 

Geopolitics casts a long shadow over the Dutch M&A market. Global instability, combined with domestic policy uncertainty around the business climate and labour market, is creating hesitation among foreign investors. 

“One of the reasons you see some flight from the Netherlands is the unpredictability of the government, which affects the business climate in particular, as well as labour market access,” Van Daal notes. 

Yet geopolitics also opens doors. Defence and energy infrastructure are two sectors poised for significant M&A activity:

• Defence: Scaled-up European defence budgets and localisation requirements are creating capital needs and acquisition opportunities across the Dutch industrial base. “There’s a massive opportunity here for Dutch businesses to support the Netherlands in scaling up defence,” Van Daal says.
• Energy transition: Companies active in energy infrastructure remain attractive targets. The energy transition is driven not just by sustainability goals, but by fundamental constraints. Grid access backlogs, for instance, directly impact the Dutch investment climate and economic growth.  

Agility: The Winning Edge

In a world of accelerating change, agility separates winners from laggards. The most valuable acquisition targets, and the most resilient acquirers, are those that can adapt quickly.

“Can I adapt my business model quickly? Can I upskill and reskill my people fast enough as the market changes? Can I change my products faster? Companies that can do all these things will be the winners in a world that is changing at an accelerated pace,” Van Daal explains.

It’s not just about efficiency. It’s about offensive agility – the capacity to innovate, pivot and transform proactively. 

The message for 2026 is clear: inaction is the highest-risk strategy. Despite the ongoing uncertainty, boards must act decisively. Four priorities stand out: 

1. Prioritise AI due diligence: Rigorously assess the AI-readiness and adaptability of both your own organisation and potential targets. Make this a standing agenda item for every investment committee.
2. Map risks and opportunities systematically: Uncertainty has multiplied the variables. Build robust scenario analyses that account for geopolitical, technological and regulatory shifts.
3. Conduct geopolitical due diligence: Evaluate how global and domestic political developments affect target companies and your own strategic options.
4. Bet on agility: Favour companies with demonstrated capacity to transform quickly. Speed of adaptation will determine who captures value in the coming years. 

The Road Ahead

The future remains uncertain, but navigating that uncertainty is now a core leadership competency. Dutch companies that embrace calculated risk, prioritise transformation and invest in agility will seize the opportunities this dynamic market offers. Standing still is not an option.